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than planned (higher means more high-power climb time; lower in turboprops and jets means vastly increase fuel flow).
Or the tailwind is less than expected/headwind more than expected, and the flight takes longer than anticipated. I listened to the pilot of a Beechcraft once who was detailing his pending lawsuit against the FAA based on getting an incorrect winds aloft forecast (by telephone). His claim was that his ground speed was too low flying down Florida’s east coast, and the fuel he planned for the trip was insufficient to keep him from ditching in the Atlantic, when of course he should have simply landed for more fuel along the way. He expected he had the fuel to make it to destination, when monitoring the ground speed and its impact on fuel burn would have told him otherwise.
Orient yourself to runways. Most of the airplanes I fly have a Horizontal Situation Indicator (HSI), which is a combination heading indicator and GPS/VOR/ILS navigation display. These come in extremely handy for IFR work, but they also help me orient myself to runways, whether taxiing or coming in to land. If I’m not actively using it for anything else, I’ll dial the HSI course needle so that the arrow points to the runway heading. This makes it very easy to determine if I’m on downwind (the tail of the needle is up, on my heading), if I’m on a 45-degree entry to the downwind (see Figure 1), or if my heading is perpendicular to the yellow course needle, meaning I’m in a base or crosswind leg. If my direction of flight does not make sense compared to the course needle when I have the runway in sight, maybe I’m lining up on the wrong runway.
Similarly, I align the course needle with the planned runway before I taxi for departure. I can tell at a glance if the runway I see I’m taxiing parallel to is the one I think it is.
Of course, there are several tricks for using geo-referenced charts and taxi diagrams that are even more precise. But just because you have something on a moving map doesn’t mean you can’t back it up here in your primary scan also.
Brief the arrival. Even if you’re on a VFR arrival, look at the airport diagram and orient yourself to the runway you’ll use. If you don’t use IFR charts, or there’s not a diagram available for your departure or destination airport, check it out on Google Earth or similar resources. Set up for the instrument approach even when you’re making a visual approach so you’ll have a navigational crosscheck. Assume nothing; resolve any discrepancies before you get too close to the ground, and don’t rely solely on memory.
Monitor the Runway. On final approach, or lining up for takeoff, make a special effort to confirm the runway in front of you is the one you think it is. Look at the runway numbers. Confirm they match your clearance or, at nontowered airports, your intentions. Crosscheck your heading as you align with the runway. This would have saved the 49 who died, and the First Officer who survived with severe injuries, when Comair Flight 5191 attempted takeoff from the wrong runway at Lexington, Kentucky. Look for obstacles in the air around the runway and on the surface itself, including airplanes or vehicles on taxiways near runway entry points.
If anything doesn’t check out, if anything just doesn’t make sense or for any reason you find yourself thinking, “I have a bad feeling about this,” get out of the airport environment
April 2017
Con rmation bias may have been a contributing factor that resulted in one pilot landing on a taxiway instead of the intended runway at a busy airport in Santa Ana, California. This tendency may be a signi cant issue in aircraft accident causation, and a major threat to the successful outcome of a ight.
(abort takeoff or go around as appropriate), then figure out what’s really going on.
Question Everything
In flight by reference to instruments we teach the process of scan, interpret and aircraft control. This process is just as descriptive of flying in visual conditions, when you consider that eyes and mind inside the airplane or out, we are constantly taking in (mostly) visual information, deciding what if anything to do with what we see, and controlling the airplane based on those decisions. Anything that interferes with the process has bearing on the results. Confirmation bias can cripple the first two stages of this three-stage exercise.
How do you mitigate the risks of confirmation bias?
• Gather information continually.
• Support or refute your expectations and decisions with real data from skeptical observations.
• Actively monitor the airplane, the environment and yourself, using an active scan, interpret, aircraft control technique.
• If anything doesn’t look right or doesn’t make sense, get away from the threat (example: go around) and rese•t.
• Question everything.
Employ healthy skepticism, knowing that even the best of us are susceptible to confirmation bias. As Professor Heshmat writes,“lookforinstancestoprovethatyouarewrong.” T&T
Thomas P. Turner is an ATP CFII/MEI, holds a Mas- ters Degree in Aviation Safety, and was the 2010 National FAA Safety Team Representative of the Year. Subscribe to Tom’s free FLYING LESSONS Weekly e-newsletter at www.mastery-flight-training.com.
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