Page 33 - April 2017 Twin & Turbine

Figure 1: Landing on Runway 18, I have
the HSI course needle pointing on runway heading. My downwind course will be in the opposite direction, 360. My current heading of about 045 degrees is correct for
a 45-degree entry to the downwind.
information when the evidence gathered so far confirms the views (prejudices) one would like to be true. Once we have formed a view, we embrace information that confirms that view while ignoring, or rejecting, information that casts doubt on it. Confirmation bias suggests that we don’t perceive circumstances objectively. We pick out those bits of data that make us feel good because they confirm our prejudices. Thus, we may become prisoners of our assumptions... In sum, people are prone to believe what they want to believe. Seeking to confirm our beliefs comes naturally, while it feels strong and counterintuitive to look for evidence that contradicts our beliefs. This explains why opinions survive and spread. Disconfirming instances are far more powerful in establishing truth. Disconfirmation would require look for evidence to disprove it... Look for instances to prove that you are wrong.”
(Excerpted from “What Is Confirmation Bias?” Psychology Today April 23, 2015)
Confirmation bias may be a significant issue in aircraft accident causation, and a major threat to the successful outcome of a flight. Seeing what we think we’ll see or hearing what we think we’ll hear, then doing what we think we should do, are common hazards in aviation. One of the advantages of a two-pilot crew, with one pilot flying (“PF”) and the other pilot monitoring (“PM”) is a double-check of actions, indications, and operations to overcome the effects of confirmation bias. Most of us don’t have this additional layer of vigilance watching what we do (or do not do) in the cockpit. We need to be our own quality control, the PM watching what we do as PF.
Getting It Right
As difficult as that may sound, there are some simple yet effective techniques we can employ to combat confirmation bias:
Develop and use standard operating procedures. SOPs include items like consistent power settings, flap settings, airspeeds and (as appropriate) landing gear position; they include how you set up and use navigation and communications radios, GPSs, autopilots and other avionics; and how and when you use checklists. SOPs may at first seem to actually contribute to the likelihood of confirmation bias, because by their nature they provide expectations. The confirmation bias-bashing benefit of SOPs, however, is that by using SOPs many decisions are already made for you; all you should do is confirm they are having the desired effect. Without having to “make it up as you go,” you are free to focus your surplus mental bandwidth on detecting and overcoming anomalies that, if you were under greater workload, you might not notice.
Use checklists and cockpit flows. Although these are a category of SOPs, it’s worth extra emphasis to use printed checklists and cockpit flow checks to ensure you have not
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April 2017
TWIN & TURBINE • 31