Page 20 - Volume 17 Number 10

18 • TWIN & TURBINE OCTOBER 2013From The Flight Deck by Kevin R. DingmanPrognosticationFrom Medieval Latin prognosticare, sign of the future:To predict according to present indications or signs; foretell.In the winter of 1967, Kalamazoo received three feet of snow in a 30-hour period. Growing up in Michigan, one of the best things about winter storms was a school closing – and that storm qualified. There’s plenty to do in snow: hunting and fishing, sledding, skiing, snowmobiling and of course, shoveling. Shoveling snow was a good way to make a few extra bucks for school, my car and flying.One December, we flew from Michigan to Florida. The temperature at departure, under a clear blue sky, was zero degrees Fahrenheit. As we walked across the blinding white, freshly plowed ramp to a new Cherokee 180, the thin packed snow against our shoes made a squeaky noise. When you took a breath, the outside of your nostrils momentarily stuck to the inside of your nostrils. Later that afternoon, we stepped into the humid, eighty- degree air of Tampa, Florida.Buying electricity, natural gas or heating oil for the house and hangar, pre-heating engines, applying deicing fluid to airplanes, and flying low-visibility approaches to slippery runways—none of these are much fun. But, unless you plan on parking your plane for the season, or avoiding two-thirds of the United States, cold-weather operations are about to become an unavoidable part of your planning— especially if you believe one hallowed, weather forecasting oracle.Superstition?Foretell – To make known in advance, especially on the basis of special knowledge, to have foreknowledge of, especially bysupernatural means. Fortune cookies, astrology, fortune tellers and the Farmers’ Almanac: for entertainment purposes only, right? If you could find stock market advice that had been 80-85% accurate for the last one hundred and ninety-five or so years, would you believe it? Seven million readers of The Farmers’ Almanac think so. Since 1818, The Farmers’ Almanac has been methodically refining its proprietary forecasting formulas for planting and harvesting crops, cooking and storing food, astrological events and long-range weather forecasting. According to its readers, the result is advice with accuracy to be envied by any prognosticator worth their book of spells or crystal ball.... including the weatherman and Punxsutawney Phil.Witches’ AnatomyIn an August press release, the Farmers’ Almanac staff used a four letter word to summarize the coming winter: Cold. No kidding; you say winter will be cold. This time though, they mean cold with a capital “C” – and an adjective or three in concurrence. Bitter, biting and piercing, for example. Going back a couple centuries before the Salem trials of 1692, and thus avoiding the colder than a witch’s anatomy thing, they did (tongue-in- cheek) claim the days of “shivery” are back. I suppose that means long- johns under your suit of armor. And for football fans, they also predict the first ten days of February will experience heavy winter weather, which isn’t unusual for February. However, it’s during that time that the Super Bowl will be played at the MetLife Stadium in New Jersey – an apparent second opportunity for those long-johns. The Almanacis also forecasting large amounts of snow in my neighborhood; not three feet in 30 hours, I hope.Engine FireAs a teen, I worked at one of the local FBO’s. All of our Piper fleet, except the brand new Seneca I, sat outside. This meant that every morning I would clean off each plane, shovel a path to the taxiway, start it and taxi from the icy tiedowns to the ramp by the mobile home we used as an office. Each plane, whether carbureted or fuel injected, had its own quirky little way it liked to be started. I knew them well enough that I was once able to hand-prop the Seneca in 20-degree weather; it started on the first pull. Another time, the boss over-primed a Cherokee 235 that had already been pre-heated; it caught fire for a bit. The experience cemented into my mind the procedure for piston and jet engines in the event of a fuel- induced engine or tail pipe fire: shut off the fuel and keep cranking the pistons or spinning the fan blades until the fire goes out.The boss used to tell me that a little frost on the wings was okay; just fly it off, he would say. Of course, in the years that followed, this “technique” fell out of favor. A few icing related accidents over the years also incentivized the development of