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accidents. Statistics have demonstrated that single-pilot operations produce 6.7 times more fatal accidents than multi- crew operations due to loss of control.
The movement towards SPO will undoubtedly enhance f light safety for GA, regardless of what it does to the airlines. Yet the transformation may not be particularly quick. Optimism from manufacturers revolves around the generational pace of technological innovation. In 1950, for example, many aircraft required five crewmembers (a radio operator, navigator, flight en- gineer, and two pilots). The reduction from five to two took two decades. We have required that number for 40 years now. A mad scramble is underway to unravel this. At stake is supremacy in the manufacturing battle for the next generation of aircraft. The FAA, in part, is commissioned to facilitate the ability of U.S.-based aviation com- panies to compete with international conglomerates. The EASA does the same for European plane builders. The first manufacturer to produce an SPO- certificated aircraft (with an equivalent level of current safety) will possess a massive advantage.
The Displacement of Skilled Workers
The question falls into many parts. Is technology better for safety than a second pilot? If we can replace an airline pilot with automation, is GA on the brink of pilotless aircraft? What will SPO infrastructure cost to develop, deploy, maintain and operate? Are we rapidly approaching a new horizon in which automation kills the need for skilled workers? If technology can replace a pilot, how far behind is medi- cine, computer programming or law?
Just when concern begins to peak, another technological glitch saves the day. No matter how well our devices are engineered, there is always room for failure (or antagonistic exploita- tion). Automation solves very narrow problems and solves them very well. The complex stuff has traditionally been left to human operators. There is a good reason for this. Computers are great at quickly and reliably solv- ing problems that exist within defi- nite boundaries. Once the probabilistic haze of the real world is introduced,
the potential for fatal errors becomes very real. The first generation of SPO airliners will undoubtedly come with hard lessons. It is easy to point to the fact that pilot error is the leading cause of accidents, but this glosses over a crucial element: the ratio between acci- dents caused and accidents prevented. A crash is obvious and comes with reporting requirements. A pilot saving the day is reminisced over a beer. Are humans worth the price? Will autono- mous flight produce a new frontier, or
will it drift along like the decades-old promise of a flying car? Either way, we are bound to discover the value of a pilot eventually.
Stan Dunn has 8,000-plus hours in turbine-powered aircraft, with three years of experience as an instructor and evaluator for airline pilots. Stan publishes detailed coverage of aviation accidents at bellmanmultimedia.com/ flying. You can contact Stan at Stan@ bellmanmultimedia.com.
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March 2023 / TWIN & TURBINE • 7