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Sell or Hold?
Editor’s Briefing
by Dianne White
In a FOMO Market, That’s the Dilemma
This month’s briefing is provided by Editor-at-Large Dianne White.
FOMO. I recently heard this acronym (which stands for “fear of missing out”) accurately applied to the aircraft market by an aircraft sales executive in Texas. Over the last two years, the confluence of the pandemic, increased travel needs, an aversion to airline travel and buyers flush with cash has created a perfect storm for aircraft demand. Used aircraft inventories have been at historic lows, and the resultant scarcity of airplanes for sale has driven prices up significantly.
As an aircraft owner, I’ve been sitting back watching the FOMO action. It’s easy to get sucked into this highly conta- gious game, especially with these unprecedented transaction numbers. If you are getting out of aviation, selling completely makes sense. Especially if you own an airplane that has a “story” in its logbook. If you have a pristine airplane with fresh engine(s), fresh inspections, and updated avionics, you can almost name your price.
Our particular bird has a new factory engine, the latest Garmin TXi glass retrofit, and a fairly recent refurbed in- terior. However, it needs paint. One of the key principles of aircraft ownership is this: don’t spend money on upgrades and refurb and expect to get dollar-for-dollar back when you sell. Invest in the plane with the mindset that you will get the benefits and enjoyment out of it now, and that it will help it be more marketable when you decide to sell. But does that hold up in a FOMO market? Maybe not.
Here’s the more salient issue: We’re not getting out of aviation. What will we replace it with? The airframe we desire as our next plane has been selling at ridiculously high levels compared to a few years ago. The airplane we really want is slightly out of financial scope given higher interest rates. Sure, I could sell high and buy high, but if the market resets – and it probably will – I will now own an asset potentially worth a lot less than I paid. I have many friends in aviation who play this game well. It’s an individual decision and dependent on your appetite for risk. For us, we’ve decided to “hold” and do the repaint now.
With our airplane on the schedule at a reputable paint shop, it’s time to start thinking about paint schemes and colors. Luckily, we’ve been through the process a few times and understand it. But the pressure of getting the scheme and paint chips just right is so much harder than redesign- ing the panel or picking out avionics.
2 • TWIN & TURBINE / June 2022
My first experience with the aircraft paint process was when I acquired my mother’s prized Cessna 172M – an aircraft she purchased new in 1975 – the aircraft was in excellent condition with the exception of the paint. Age, sun and an unfortunate meeting with a pressure hose left it oxidized, faded and down to the metal in places. I was never crazy about Cessna’s groovy 1970’s orange-and-brown scheme that adorned the plane. It reminded me of an A&W root beer label – so not fitting an aircraft that played such an important part in our family’s history. As a kid, I was so proud of that plane, except for its “fugly” paint scheme. If I ever had a say in its repainting...
Confronted with an entire spectrum of colors and fin- ishes, it was like standing in front a wall of Jelly Belly dis- pensers. Picking a scheme started out exciting but became overwhelming. It isn’t like you get a do-over if you make a bad choice.
One night, I was flipping through family photos and came upon one that gave me pause. It was of my mom standing in front of that old Cessna with our daughter who was five at the time (circa the year 2000). Grandma had taken her flying that day and someone – probably my dad – snapped a photo. Both of them are beaming with my mom appear- ing to be in mid-sentence, probably retelling all the things they saw on the flight. The little girl would later earn her pilot’s license in this plane, just as I did. It occurred to me that this one little Cessna would help launch my career and that of my daughter’s, who now flies an EA-18G Growler Super Hornet for the U.S. Navy.
It was that moment I knew there was only one answer to my paint problem. I needed to restore the Cessna’s faded feathers to its original glory exactly as looked when it rolled off the final production line at Cessna’s Pawnee plant...in all its “Tropical Orange” and “Saddle Brown” glory. Nothing else would be fitting for a plane that has meant so much to our family.
Our business aircraft, the one we are about to paint, has no special history, at least not yet. It’s a blank canvass on which we can convey our story. And what will that story be? In the end, I’m confident our finished product will be not too wild, not too boring, but 100% uniquely us. FOMO? Not a chance.